For anyone trying to buy a home, 2023 was a rough year for the housing market.

Home prices remained stubbornly high, despite all those forecasts of a crash, and mortgage rates soared above 8%.

As a result, many, including possibly yourself, put their home buying plans on hold.

But 2024 is a new year and even though buyers received the gift of falling mortgage rates at the end of 2023, questions remain about where home prices and mortgage rates are heading this year.

Continue reading below, or watch the following video, to learn more:

It’s Really Noisy

If you were one of those that put your home buying plans on hold, I don’t blame you!!

Things got pretty crazy last year and predictions about where the market was heading were all over the place. It became hard to separate fact and fiction, let alone make sense of it all amongst the noise.

I certainly don’t pretend to have all the answers, but my goal with this blog post is to help provide you with some clarity in an effort to provide you with the information you need to make the best decision for you and your family.

Home Prices

Home prices are front and center in the eyes of most buyers. It makes sense as nobody wants to buy a home if they believe prices are about to fall.

At the end of 2022 there were forecasts and videos all over the place predicting prices in 2023 were going to plummet, but they didn’t.

Rather than rely on the opinion of any one particular person or company, I prefer to look at the Home Price Expectation Survey (HPES) published by Fannie Mae.

The HPES averages together the opinions of over 100 leading economists, real estate experts, and investment strategists. To me, this provides a more reliable consensus on where the overall market (the results are for the national market) is heading.

Here are results of that survey when it comes to home prices over the next few years:

The biggest takeaway here is rather than price declines, home prices are expected to continue increasing over the next several years.

How much prices change will vary from market to market as not all areas will perform the same, but talk of a crash has pretty much disappeared.


To Follow Your Local Market Check Out my Weekly Market Report. See the latest trends for any city or zip code in the country.


To illustrate how all real estate is ultimately local we don’t need to look any further than Frisco and Prosper.


Frisco Home Prices


Here is how Frisco Texas home prices changed over the last year:



Year-over-year (December 2022 to December 2023) Frisco home prices are up 0.8%, but year-to-date (January 2023 to December 2023) prices were up 3%.

Prosper Home Prices

By comparison, year-over-year home prices in Prosper were up 13% while year-to-date home prices were up 11%.

How can that be?

It all comes down to the type and mix of properties sold in any given month. If more higher priced homes are sold in one month compared to the next the numbers will fluctuate up and down which is why it’s important to keep on eye on local trends using my Weekly Market Report.

2024 Home Prices

While there is no way to know for sure what all of 2024 will bring, I do have a good idea what to expect in the first quarter of 2024.

By looking at the pending sales data (those homes currently under contract) we are able to gauge where home prices will be in the next couple of months when those pending contracts turn into closed sales.

Based on those numbers we can already see that home prices locally are continuing to trend upward.

Mortgage Rates

While it doesn’t look as though buyers are going to get any relief from falling home prices, falling mortgage rates are on the horizon.

The widespread expectation is for mortgage rates to continue moving down as inflation, and the economy,

continues to cool. It is believed we could see rates around 6% by the end of 2024.

Truthfully, when it comes to affordability, mortgage rates play a larger role than home prices do.

A 1% reduction in the mortgage rate is approximately equal to a 10% home price reduction.

The best case scenario for anyone considering buying a home is for rates to continue to move down while home price appreciation remains moderate.

Best Buying Opportunities

All is not lost!!

The current housing market does offer some incredible buying opportunities if you know where to look.

One such opportunity is with quick move-in new construction homes. Quick move-in homes are new construction homes that are either finished, or will be finished within about 60 days. The more complete the home is the more the builder will be will to negotiate.

In addition to reducing the price, financing incentives are also often available. We were recently able to help a buyer get a permanent fixed rate mortgage of 5.5% and a $50,000 price reduction on a quick move-in home.

If you’d like to know more please schedule a call and I’d be happy to share the latest promotions and opportunities with you.

Frisco and Prosper New Construction Opportunities


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