Based on the latest data and market signals, over the past few months, experts have revised their home price forecasts for 2024 as they’re more confident than ever that prices will rise, not fall.

This past weekend I visited several new home communities in Frisco and Prosper and can tell you there was no shortage of potential home buyers out looking with many new communities starting interest lists for new phase releases once again.

That’s not to say anyone is forecasting a return to the bidding wars and multiple offers of a couple of years ago, but the idea of home price declines forecast last year are becoming a distant memory.

So why have the experts’ opinion changed and what’s caused it?

2024 Home Price Forecasts: Then and Now

The chart below compares the November 2023 forecast of home prices for 2024 by seven expert organizations to the revised forecasts released earlier this month:

As you can see, every organization has revised their 2024 home price forecast up, some by more than 3%.

The two big factors that are keeping home prices elevated are low inventory and mortgage rates.

Even though mortgage rates soared, there was simply not enough homes for sale, even in a low demand environment, to put downward pressure on home prices.

According to Business Insider

Low home inventory is a chronic problem in the US. This has generally kept hone prices up….

This is not a new problem, but one that has been with us for a long time now and isn’t expected to change dramatically this year.

The following graph shows how far down inventory (number of homes for sale) is here in Frisco compared to years past:

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Even though mortgage rates have ticked up the past couple of weeks, they are down from their peak last year and are expected to decline further over the course of this year. Any drop in mortgage rates will cause an increase in buyer demand. That increase in demand, when coupled with low supply, will put upward pressure on home prices.

Here is home home prices are currently trending in Frisco, TX:

Looking Forward

Even though there is plenty of new construction in and around the Frisco area, there is still not enough supply to satisfy the demand of people moving to this area.

As mortgage rates fall, I expect we will see more existing homeowners move forward with plans to sell, but those falling rates will only increase demand.

As such, there is nothing in any of the data currently to suggest Frisco won’t continue to see increasing home prices in the years ahead.

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If you have questions about the current market and want to know if now is a good time for you to consider Buying or Selling, let’s connect so I can share the latest information about our local market with you.

Homes For Sales in Frisco and Prosper Texas


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